Dear friend, the following is our monthly market report update, for your reference.
Tinplate prices remain stable, with moderate market demand. Some tinplate suppliers are under sales pressure. The tinplate market is expected to remain steady in July.
1. Tinplate Prices
Baosteel, WISCO and Meisteel tinplate and electrolytic chromium-coated steel prices remain unchanged;
Most suppliers keep tinplate prices unchanged;
Baosteel hot-rolled coil prices increased by RMB 50/ton
2. Review of First-Half 2026 Market Conditions
Looking back at the first half of 2026, tinplate prices overall showed a steady but slightly strong performance, driven passively by cost support, leaving traders with narrower room for manoeuvre. In terms of tinplate fundamentals, the average comprehensive cost of hot-rolled substrate in H1 fell 3.99% year-on-year, while tin ingot prices rose 50.78% year-on-year. Tinplate production reached 2.4222 million tonnes, exports fell 12.71% year-on-year, and apparent tinplate consumption increased slightly.
2.2 Tin ingot prices remain at high levels
As the most important raw material in tinplate production, tin ingot prices moved higher with volatility in the first half. As of June 29, the average price for January–June was RMB 395,576/tonne, up 50.78% year-on-year. The price trend continued the upward momentum from the second half of 2025 and remained volatile at high levels, rising from RMB 332,300/tonne at the start of the year to a peak of RMB 446,300/tonne, mostly fluctuating in the RMB 360,000–410,000/tonne range. It is estimated that the average tin coating cost per tonne of steel (for 0.2mm double-sided 2.8g tinplate) is about RMB 1,454.28/tonne, an increase of RMB 489.76/tonne compared with the same period last year.
2.3 Tinplate enterprise profits remain low
In the first half of the year, tinplate production costs increased by 6%, while profit margins fell by 61%.
2.4 Tinplate prices rose 3.2% overall in H1 2026
The average ex-factory price for private-sector tinplate in 2026 is RMB 5,810/ton, up 3.14% year-on-year. Looking at state-owned mill price announcements, Baosteel Group’s tinplate futures guidance prices for January–July were either flat or increased, with only a downward adjustment in May. In the second half, domestic steel prices are expected to shift lower on average, offering little support for tinplate hot-rolled substrate. Increases in order prices for futures contracts are mainly driven by cost pressures from tin ingot volatility.
2.5 January–May tinplate exports fell 12.71% year-on-year
In May 2026, China’s tinplate exports totalled 144,800 tonnes (-16.57% YoY), bringing the Jan–May total to 675,800 tonnes (-12.71% YoY). Looking at the broader trend, annual exports have generally risen over the past five years: 1.353m tonnes in 2021, 1.726m in 2022, 1.422m in 2023, and 1.714m in 2024. In 2025, growth remained strong, with a full-year increase of 16.17% and most months beating the previous year’s levels. However, in 2026, domestic export licensing measures and overseas geopolitical conflicts have weighed on shipments, causing the year-to-date decline.
2.6 Downstream industry performance
In Jan–Apr 2026, beverage output fell 3.03% YoY to 57.787m tonnes (April: -3.19% to 14.995m), while dairy output rose 7.64% to 10.044m tonnes (April: +2.96% to 2.363m).
Tinplate serves both food-grade (beverage, food, milk powder cans) and non-food-grade packaging (chemical drums, aerosol cans, electronics). In 2026, the beverage sector declined after strong 2024 growth; canned food and dairy continued to soften, and the liquor sector underperformed due to policy headwinds. Apparent tinplate consumption was 3.509m tonnes in 2024 and 3.402m in 2025; despite the export drop in 2026, domestic demand showed some resilience, pushing apparent consumption slightly higher.
3. H2 2026 Outlook
H1 output reached 2.42m tonnes, and with 8.53m tonnes of annual capacity across 53 lines, supply pressure remains high. However, rising losses among private mills – due to high tin ingot costs (up 50.78% YoY) and a time lag in cost pass-through – may force some production cuts, easing supply moderately.
Demand is subdued. The slight increase in H1 apparent consumption was largely driven by restocking and price expectations, not genuine recovery. H2 downstream procurement may see seasonal improvement in Q3, but overall elasticity is limited. Export headwinds and trade barriers persist.
Exports fell 12.71% YoY in H1, hit by geopolitical disruptions and a high base. Some marginal recovery is possible in H2 as mills adopt “volume-for-price” strategies, but full-year exports are unlikely to surpass 2025 levels.
Overall, high tin ingot costs provide price support, but ample supply and weak demand cap upside. Prices are expected to dip first, then edge up in the latter part of H2.
4. International Market News
4.1 EU CBAM: The Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price is set at €75.28, slightly down from Q1’s €75.36. The Q3 price will be announced on October 5.
4.2 China steel exports (CISA): May 2026 exports were driven by hot-rolled products; EU-bound shipments fell over 20% month-on-month due to new import protection measures. CISA expects exports to the EU to contract further, with flows shifting toward Africa and the Middle East.
4.3 Tata Steel: Plans $2.09 billion in capex for FY2026-27 (up from $1.52 billion), with 60% allocated to Indian operations, including tinplate and wire rod capacity expansions.
4.4 Taiwan anti-dumping case: China Steel’s petition against cold-rolled imports from China and South Korea remains stalled after three months, prompting downstream buyers to stockpile; June imports hit a recent high of approximately 40,000 tonnes.
4.5 India anti-dumping investigation: On June 22, 2026, India initiated an anti-dumping probe on cold-rolled grain-oriented electrical steel (CRGO) and amorphous metal imports from China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. Main HS codes: 72251100, 72261100, and 72269930; also covered under 72251920, 72251990, 72261920, 72269910, 72261990, 72269920, and 72269990.
5. Responding to Market Volatility – Act Early to Secure Your Timely Needs
Since 2025, fluctuations in freight rates, exchange rates, and raw material costs have significantly affected downstream customers’ purchasing plans for tinplate lid products. Facing an uncertain second half of 2026, we recommend that you take early action, lock in your plans, and plan and lay out your market strategy ahead of time:
A. Prepare your procurement plans early and lock in long-term orders when the market is stable;
B. We can store goods on your behalf and dispatch them in batches according to your needs;
C. Gain more time to compare freight rates and choose the right timing for shipment.
RIC PACKAGE looks forward to providing you with more support and is always happy to hear your thoughts.
www.ricpackage.com
